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- Chris Webber can’t do any good for the Warriors.  He’s too slow to keep up with the team when they run, and he’s a liability in terms of defense and rebounding.  He can help facilitate and distribute within the half-court offense, but his detraction from the defensive end is more significant.  He’s not an upgrade over Al Harrington on either end of the floor, and if he takes minutes away from Andris Biedrins, the Warriors lose their only interior defender and rebounder.  Biedrins provides an excellent pick-and-roll game for the Warriors, and his athleticism and size down low are an important part of the Warriors success.

- Jason Kidd is absolutely right in his assessment of the New Jersey Nets’ future.  Vince Carter is not a winning player.  He contributes nothing defensively, takes bad shots instead of attacking the rim, and can’t create opportunities for his teammates.  Richard Jefferson is a scorer.  Nothing more.  Nenad Krstic can’t stay healthy, and the two young big men (Josh Boone and Sean Williams) are too raw to be effective, championship-type players at this early point in their careers.  Factor in Jason Collins, and you just don’t have a viable contender.  As Kidd approaches the end of his career, he knows he only has a few more years to be a valuable contributor to a championship run.  He doesn’t want to ride the bench as a 40 year old backup to get a ring.  He wants to be part of the team that wins it.  Can’t blame him.

- Look for the New England Patriots to crush the New York Giants.  Since the temperature will be perfect and the wind a non-factor (the stadium’s roof can close), the Patriots won’t have any problems with the passing game.  They’ll be free to burn the Giants deep and turn short passes into long runs after the catch.  Tom Brady will win his fourth Super Bowl and the perfect season will be complete.  The only question left is what will the Patriots do with San Francisco’s draft pick…

-  The NHL’s All-Star weekend passed by with little attention or fanfare outside the increasingly smaller hockey world.  Versus is horrible for the NHL as few cable subscribers even get the channel, and fewer even know it exists.  The NHL need to get back on ESPN at bare minimum, and the league needs to vastly improve the marketing of the game and the players.  Many have argued that the personalities are too dull to excite fans, but most of the younger up-and-coming players have dynamic identities.  For all of his talent, Sidney Crosby alone isn’t enough.  He doesn’t effectively display the genuine excitement and joy that energizes fans.  Give Alexander Ovechkin a bigger share of the stage.  Having another Jeremy Roenick type to stir up some controversy wouldn’t hurt, but there are plenty of players who have a unique story and experience to share with the fans.  Aside from the rare hockey highlights on SportsCenter, there is no hockey programming outside of the games.  If the games were broadcast on ESPN, then ESPN would make sure to subtly hype up and advertise the matchups by having more dedicated segments to hockey on SportsCenter, and they would likely bring back NHL2Night as a highlight and analysis show, exclusively for hockey.  Most importantly the league needs to re-establish the connection between the fans and the players.  The teams need to have more fan-player interaction and events.

The Best Scorers in the NHL

Roving Panda presents a statistical analysis of the best goal scorers in the NHL.  Click on the thumbnails to view a larger version of each graph.

Alexander Ovechkin, Ilya Kovalchuk, and Dany Heatley have clearly been the best goal scorers in the NHL since the lockout, with Vincent Lecavalier not far behind.  With the shoulder injury, however, Heatley more than likely won’t reach 50 goals for a third consecutive season.  Marian Gaborik and Simon Gagne should also rank near the top based upon the rate at which they score goals, but injuries have limited them to far fewer games than the leaders.  In fact, the pseudo-retired Teemu Selanne has nearly played as many games (162) as Gagne (164) and more than Gaborik (156) in spite of missing the 07-08 year so far. 

Jonathan Cheechoo and Jaromir Jagr have both shown drastic drop-offs in their scoring, though for different reasons.  Cheechoo led the league with 56 goals during the 05-06 campaign thanks in large part to setup man Joe Thornton.  The pair were subsequently broken up, and Cheechoo now struggles near the bottom of San Jose’s depth chart.  For Jagr, both age and the Rangers’ roster moves have contributed to his decline.  Approaching his 36th birthday, Jagr’s best days are behind him.  In addition, the loss of centerman Michael Nylander, with whom Jagr had developed excellent chemistry, and the adjustment to new acquisitions Chris Drury and Scott Gomez have been difficult changes to face for the future Hall-of-Famer.

In terms of shooting percentage, the graph clearly illustrates the negative relationship between shots and shooting percentage, that is, as a player’s number of shots increases, that player’s shooting percentage decreases.  Kovalchuk and Heatley both shoot quite well for the number of shots taken.  Interestingly, a group of four players, Ovechkin, Marian Hossa, Jagr, and Olli Jokinen fall somewhat below the others in terms of shooting percentage while taking a seemingly much greater number of shots.  Perhaps Atlanta would be better served by having Kovalchuk take relatively more shots than Hossa as Hossa has shot nearly 4 percentage points below Kovalchuk while taking 12 more shots since the lockout.

The World Awaits….. Again?

ESPN.com is reporting that Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Oscar De La Hoya are near an agreement for a rematch of their megafight last May.  The bout is tentatively scheduled for September, and potential sites include the Home Depot Center in Los Angeles and the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. 

Can it be about anything but the money?  Mayweather will gain nothing but a huge paycheck when he defeats De La Hoya, hopefully in a more convincing fashion this time.  De La Hoya doesn’t even deserve to step into the ring with Mayweather when you consider that, since the Trinidad fight in 1999, his ‘marquee’ wins include Fernando Vargas, Felix Sturm, and Ricardo Mayorga.  His losses? Only Mayweather, Bernard Hopkins, and Shane Mosley twice.  Clearly, De La Hoya can’t match up with elite level fighters any more, instead building a reputation against flawed fighters that allows him to make the big-money fights against the best, fights that he ultimately loses.

There’s only one fighter that Mayweather should confront: Miguel Cotto.  Unlike De La Hoya, who now only fights for the money, Cotto still has the desire and determination to be the best.  His style contrasts well against Mayweather’s, making for a much more entertaining fight.  In fact, of all the opponents out there, Cotto stands the best chance of both hurting, and potentially defeating, Mayweather.  That’s why Mayweather won’t fight Cotto.  This is not to say that Mayweather won’t dispose of Cotto as well, but with De La Hoya, Mayweather takes no risk of damage or defeat and will walk away with another enormous payday.  If boxing fans must put up with the rematch, at least they can take solace in knowing that HBO’s 24/7 will once again feature Roger Mayweather.

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- The Pistons followed their 11-game winning streak with a 1-2 showing against Boston, Dallas, and San Antonio.  In the losses to Boston and Dallas, the team seemed to play without the right focus and energy, a problem that has cost them in the playoffs since losing game 7 to the Spurs in the Finals.  It comes down to coaching.  The Pistons have shown time and again that some nights, they aren’t willing to bring the effort, so the coach has to inspire and motivate the team in such a way that they do bring that determination and energy.  For all of his off-court drama, Larry Brown found a way to motivate this team.  Flip Saunders hasn’t yet found the right buttons to press, and if he doesn’t figure it out this year, he may not have another chance.

- Specifically in the Dallas game, when Walter Herrmann was defending Dirk Nowitzki so well, why did Flip Saunders go with a different defender in the second half until it was too late?  It seems Dirk plays well against taller defenders as he prefers to use speed and quickness to create space.  Against smaller, quicker defenders like Steven Jackson, he struggles to dominate them as he isn’t comfortable posting up in the paint.

- Strange game between the Wings and Wild as Minnesota won 6-5 in a shootout.  Even though the Wings dominated the shot totals, they gave Minnesota far too many scoring opportunities off bad turnovers.  The one problem the Wings have with trying to move the puck quickly out of the defensive zone is that when a skater who isn’t accustomed to starting the break, like Andreas Lilja, has to make a play, he gives up a juicy turnover to the opponent.  The Wings need to pick and choose when to break out and when to regroup more carefully.  It’s worth sacrificing a few scoring chances to prevent giving the opponent even better chances, especially when you have playmakers like Datsyuk and Zetterberg who can create opportunities out of nothing for both themselves and their teammates.

Mid-Season Review

The Detroit Red Wings currently top the NHL standings with 63 points halfway through the season and have done so in spite of numerous bumps and bruises.  Injuries to Dominik Hasek, Henrik Zetterberg, Tomas Holmstrom, Kris Draper, and Kirk Maltby, among others, haven’t slowed the team at all.  The team currently ranks second in goals per game at 3.39 (Ottawa leads with 3.5 goals per game) and first in goals against average at 2.07.  The specialty teams have also improved greatly from last season, especially the powerplay which now scores on 23.3% of its opportunities compared to only 17% last season.  With both the highest total shots and fewest shots against, the Wings ability to keep possession of the puck has allowed them to dominate play.  The stars have been stars, the backup goaltender has been stellar, and the young guns have stepped up their production. 

Henrik Zetterberg (25 G, 27 A, 52 Pts) and Pavel Datsyuk (16 G, 34 A, 50 Pts) lead the offensive attack.  Nicklas Lidstrom (4 G, 34 A, 38 Pts) and Brian Rafalski (6 G, 28 A, 34 Pts) are the top two scoring defensemen in the league, while Lidstrom also leads the league in +/- at an astounding +31.  Although Zetterberg missed 5 games at the end of December, he came back quickly with two assists against Dallas on Wednesday.  At the start of the season, the team featured the best scoring line in the league with Datsyuk, Zetterberg, and Tomas Holmstrom together, but now coach Mike Babcock has separated the two to provide better depth as younger players have demonstrated their skill.  Both players have also shown exceptional defensive play as well, forcing turnovers and takeaways again and again.  Lidstrom, the captain who leads by example, has shown he is the best defenseman league.  Never out of position, Lidstrom can shut down an opponents best forward while also leading the offensive break with crisp passing.  His individual powerplay numbers are down slightly, but this is because the team now features another powerplay quarterback in Brian Rafalski, who has seamlessly replaced Mathieu Schneider, now of the Anaheim Ducks.  Lidstrom should once again be hoisting the Norris Trophy.

When Dominik Hasek started the season slowly and struggled with injury issues, the Wings turned to Chris Osgood to protect the net.  Osgood has turned in a sparkling performance with an 18-2-1 record while leading the league in GAA (1.71) and Save Percentage (.931%).  With Hasek’s return, Babcock has decided to alternate starts between the two net-minders, allowing Hasek to rest more and stay healthy and Osgood to stay in peak shape.  Come playoff time, the team will go with the hot hand, but for the regular season it’s better to keep both goalies rested and healthy.

Injuries to Kirk Maltby, Kris Draper, and Tomas Holmstrom have given young forwards Jiri Hudler (10 G, 17 A, 27 Pts) and Valtteri Filppula (13 G, 9 A, 22 Pts) more ice time, and the duo has responded with excellent production.  Hudler has played consistently well since November started and Filppula caught fire in December.  Filppula has demonstrated his great two-way game, playing valuable minutes on the penalty kill and keeping control of the puck in the opponent’s zone on the attack, a trademark of great Red Wings teams.  He has the potential to be a dominant first-line player.  Hudler has already surpassed his point total from last year, and his increased production has offset some of his defensive deficiencies.

Looking forward, the team’s primary concern has to be keeping everyone healthy.  Although the team has consistently dominated play, they have to make sure they can carry that momentum into the playoffs.  Having a choice between two goalies could give the Wings a chance to steal a game or two in a series with the hot hand, something that opponents have done in eliminating the Red Wings over recent seasons.  The Wings should be taking home plenty of hardware at the end of the year, but of course, only the Stanley Cup matters.

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- It’s great to see the Red Wings continue an excellent December, especially with both Jiri Hudler and Valtteri Filppula stepping up in place of the injured Henrik Zetterberg and Tomas Holmstrom.  Also nice to see Nicklas Lidstrom agree to a 2-year contract extension.  That will give the team more time to find/develop a new #1 defenseman.

- The Pistons have now won 8 straight and more importantly, now have a healthy Rodney Stuckey coming off the bench.  It will take more time for Stuckey to get comfortable with his role, but if the Pistons are to have any success in the postseason, Stuckey will have to provide some instant offense and energy.

- Although the Patriots completed the regular season undefeated, their toughest challenges still remain in front of them.  They will have to win 3 games against opponents who are much more skilled than the Ravens, Eagles, or Giants.  The team has been relatively healthy so far, but their luck may run out as the intensity of the games picks up.

- Fighter of the Year has to be Floyd “Money” Mayweather.  His megafight with Oscar de la Hoya, though somewhat underwhelming, proved that boxing can still dominate the headlines, and his knockout victory over Ricky Hatton was an excellent display of Mayweather’s overall skill.  To cement his legacy, he still needs to defeat Miguel Cotto, but don’t expect that fight to be made any time soon.

East Showdown

The Detroit Pistons came away with a big 87-85 win over the Boston Celtics.  The Pistons sealed the victory when, with the score tied at 85 near the end of the fourth quarter, Chauncey Billups drew a foul on Tony Allen with less than a second left on a jumpshot.  Billups drained both, and the Pistons handed the Celtics their first home loss.

The game was a hard fought game with both teams playing excellent defense.  The Celtics had a decent lead in the third and fourth quarters, but the Pistons brought Lindsey Hunter in off the bench, who then sparked a big run for the Pistons with his on-ball pressure.  The Celtics closed the gap at the end with some clutch shooting from Ray Allen, but the Pistons finally sealed the deal.

It was interesting to see that the Celtics end game offense consisted mostly of 1-on-1 isolation for either Pierce or Allen.  Garnett didn’t play a big role, and there wasn’t much ball movement to get an open look except on Eddie House’s 3-pointer.  Rajon Rondo had an excellent game, repeatedly penetrating the defense and making the right passes for 7 assists, while also hitting 7 of his 10 shots.  The Celtics only shot 13-21 from the free throw line, so they easily could have won the game.  Paul Pierce was also ineffective, scoring only 11 points on 16 shots.  Ray Allen had a great night, hitting big shots from deep and throwing down a huge reverse dunk that energized both his team and the fans.

For the Pistons, despite poor offensive outings from both Tayshaun Prince and Rasheed Wallace (combined 4-20 from the field), the Pistons kept it close by shooting 45% on 3-pointers (9-20) and 87% from the stripe (20-23).  Jason Maxiell also had key offensive rebounds down the stretch and ended the game with a +11 in the box score, demonstrating his impact.

Moving forward from this game, the Celtics probably can learn more from this game about what to do in big game situations, who to turn to for big shots, and how to make key stops late.  The Pistons have been on the big stage many times before, so there isn’t much for them to learn from this game.  To them, it’s just another regular season game.  Both teams have big expectations for the playoffs, and with Cleveland slumping, Chicago struggling, and Miami unhealthy, look for these two to meet again in the Eastern Conference Finals. 

Orlando remains the only other team right now in contention for the Eastern crown, but it remains to be seen if they can maintain their early season momentum.  Nobody can contain Dwight Howard, but both the Pistons and Celtics could probably shut down the rest of the team, so the Magic will need Rashard Lewis to step up.  The Magic also have very little depth, and considering how many minutes the starters are playing, they may break down through the length of the season.

Pro Bowl Rosters Part II

Part 2 of our look at the Pro Bowl Rosters: a breakdown of the AFC Roster.  Click here for a look at the NFC roster.

AFC Offense

QB - Tom Brady (New England), Peyton Manning (Indianapolis), Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh)

David Garrard missed a few games and doesn’t have the numbers, and Derek Anderson’s completion percentage is too low, so no arguments here.

RB - LaDainian Tomlinson (San Diego), Joseph Addai (Indianapolis), Willie Parker (Pittsburgh)

Willis McGahee, Jamal Lewis, and Fred Taylor can all make convincing arguments to be on the squad, but I don’t see how you can put them in ahead of these 3.  Parker and Tomlinson are the top two leading rushers in the league, and Addai has 11 touchdowns along with his 1000 yards.

FB - Lorenzo Neal (San Diego)

Solid, consistent lead blocker for the best back in the league.

WR - Randy Moss (New England), Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis), Braylon Edwards (Cleveland), T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Cincinnati)

No questions here.   Chad Johnson, Brandon Marshall, and Wes Welker don’t have quite the numbers of the four on the team.

TE - Antonio Gates (San Diego), Tony Gonzalez (Kansas City)

Although Gonzalez has more catches than Kellen Winslow, Winslow has the same number of yards and touchdowns, and he has been an integral part of Cleveland’s success this year and should be on ahead of Gonzalez.

OT - Matt Light (New England), Jason Peters (Buffalo), Jonathan Ogden (Baltimore)

Joe Thomas should be on instead of Ogden.  Ogden has been struggling with a toe injury and hasn’t performed as well as he normally has.

OG - Alan Faneca (Pittsburgh), Logan Mankins (New England), Kris Dielman (San Diego)

All deserving candidates here.

AFC Defense

DE - Jared Allen (Kansas City), Kyle Vanden Bosch (Tennessee), Jason Taylor (Miami)

Mario Williams absolutely got robbed.  No way should Jason Taylor be a pro bowler considering how awful the Dolphins have been.  It’s looking more and more like Mario Williams was the right choice, but we still have years to go.

DT - Albert Haynesworth (Tennessee), Vince Wilfork (New England), Jamal Williams (San Diego)

All excellent choices, but perhaps either Kelly Gregg or Haloti Ngata from Baltimore should be on the team instead of Jamal Williams.

OLB - James Harrison (Pittsburgh), Mike Vrabel (New England), Shawne Merriman (San Diego)

Nothing to argue here.

ILB - DeMeco Ryans (Houston), Ray Lewis (Baltimore)

Maybe you take D.J. Williams or Kirk Morrison ahead of Lewis, but it’s really a toss-up.

CB - Champ Bailey (Denver), Asante Samuel (New England), Antonio Cromartie (San Diego)

Excellent selections here.

FS - Ed Reed (Baltimore)

Another solid choice.

SS - Bob Sanders (Indianapolis), Troy Polamalu (Pittsburgh)

I would take Kerry Rhodes from New York ahead of Polamalu, who has missed a couple games.

AFC Special Teams

P - Shane Lechler (Oakland)

Consistently booms punts.  Good choice.

K - Rob Bironas (Tennessee)

Bironas is having a great year, and he deserves to be here.

KR - Josh Cribbs (Cleveland)

He’s had a number of great returns this year, so no concerns with this choice.

ST - Kassim Osgood (San Diego)

Whoop-de-doo.

Pro Bowl Rosters Part I

Pro Bowl rosters were announced today, so let’s go through them position-by-position, starting with the NFC.  Click here for a breakdown of the AFC roster.

NFC Offense

QB - Brett Favre (Green Bay), Matt Hasselbeck (Seattle), Tony Romo (Dallas)

No qualms here as Brees has too many interceptions on an average team and Garcia doesn’t have the numbers.

RB - Adrian Peterson (Minnesota), Marion Barber (Dallas), Brian Westbrook (Philadelphia)

Tampa Bay’s Earnest Graham probably should be in over Barber considering he was the workhorse behind the Buccaneer’s division win and put up virtually identical numbers (with the exception of yards per carry) as Barber.

FB - Tony Richardson (Minnesota)

Considering the Vikings have far and away the best running game in the league, this is a no-brainer.

WR - Terrell Owens (Dallas), Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona), Donald Driver (Green Bay), Torry Holt (St. Louis)

Greg Jennings should be on the team instead of Driver.  Driver has only two touchdowns, while Jennings is second in the NFC with twelve.  Plaxico Burress has been playing with an injured ankle all year, and Marques Colston has been putting up excellent numbers.  One of them should be on ahead of Torry Holt, whose team although plagued by injury has underperformed.

TE - Jason Witten (Dallas), Chris Cooley (Washington)

Two easy selections.

OT - Flozell Adams (Dallas), Walter Jones (Seattle), Chris Samuels (Washington)

Bryant McKinnie should be a pro-bowler, probably replacing Walter Jones whose Seahawks team cannot run the ball at all.

OG - Leonard Davis (Dallas), Steve Hutchinson (Minnesota), Shawn Andrews (Philadelphia)

All deserving selections.

C - Andre Gurode (Dallas), Matt Birk (Minnesota)

Offensive linemen are always the most difficult selections to make, primarily because there are no official statistics to compare players against each other.  You can roughly compare their teams overall offensive performance, but you basically just have to watch these guys closely in-game to see who is the best.

NFC Defense

DE - Aaron Kampman (Green Bay), Patrick Kerney (Seattle), Osi Umenyiora (New York Giants)

Umenyiora’s numbers are inflated by his tremendous six sack game against the Eagles.  Trent Cole of the Philadelphia Eagles has slightly better numbers, and has been more consistent than Umenyiora.

DT - Kevin Williams (Minnesota), Pat Williams (Minnesota), Tommie Harris (Chicago)

As good as Minnesota’s stingy run defense has been, Darnell Dockett has had a great year for the Arizona Cardinals and might be more deserving than one of the two Williams (probably Kevin, in spite of his two interceptions returned for touchdowns).

OLB - Julian Peterson (Seattle), DeMarcus Ware (Dallas), Lance Briggs (Chicago)

Ernie Sims of the Detroit Lions needs to be on this team.  Take Briggs off as neither he nor Brian Urlacher have played all that well this season.

ILB - Lofa Tatupu (Seattle), Patrick Willis (San Francisco)

Both are good selections although Nick Barnett of Green Bay might have an argument against Tatupu.

CB - Al Harris (Green Bay), Marcus Trufant (Seattle), Terence Newman (Dallas)

Can’t complain much with these choices.

FS - Sean Taylor (Washington), Ken Hamlin (Dallas)

Oshiomogho Atogwe on St. Louis deserves the nod over Hamlin based on the numbers he has put up.

SS - Darren Sharper (Minnesota)

Although Sharper has played well, Jermaine Phillips of Tampa Bay should be starting.

NFC Special Teams

P - Andy Lee (San Francisco)

Pretty straightforward pick based on average.

K - Nick Folk (Dallas)

Robbie Gould of Chicago has a higher percentage with more attempts and should be starting.

KR - Devin Hester (Chicago)

Duh.

ST - Brendon Ayanbadejo (Chicago)

Does it really matter?

We’ll dissect the AFC Rosters next.

Forward Progress

The University of Michigan announced the hiring of Rich Rodriguez as head coach of the Wolverine’s football team.  Rodriguez previously led the West Virginia Mountaineers to multiple Big East conference titles.  For Michigan, this signals a drastic change in the team’s philosophy.  For years, the team has played a physical, smashmouth style.  Rodriguez brings a spread option system that gives the quarterback a variety of choices, between handing the ball off to the running back, throwing to various receivers, or running the ball himself.  Rodriguez has had success with the system dating back to his time at Glenville State, through Tulane, and most recently with QB Pat White and RB Steve Slaton at West Virginia.

The Wolverines don’t have the personnel to run this type of system, so it may take an adjustment period for Rodriguez to bring in players that fit his system.  Much-hyped freshman QB Ryan Mallett has a strong arm, but as more of a pocket passer, lacks the speed, mobility, and elusiveness to run the spread option offense.  Speed at the running back position is also an issue as none of the returning backs have blazing speed.  However, the incoming class of recruits may come in and start immediately.  Already earning a solid verbal commitment from Texas RB Sam McGuffie, who runs a 4.32 40-yard dash, the Wolverines now are among QB Terrelle Pryor’s top choices.  Pryor, from Pennsylvania, is widely ranked as the #1 recruit in the nation.  His combination of prototypical size (6-6, 235) and 4.4 speed has scouts (as well as fans in Ann Arbor) excited about what the future may hold.  If Rodriguez can bring these two into the fold at Michigan, he may have his starting backfield set for the foreseeable future.

Pryor committing to Michigan is far from a sure thing at this point, and Rodriguez still has much work ahead of him on the recruiting trail.  Rodriguez is leaning toward not coaching West Virginia for their upcoming Fiesta Bowl matchup with Oklahoma.  He will more than likely remain in Ann Arbor rather than try to fit the needs of two programs into his schedule.  For the players at West Virginia, this is a huge blow to the trust they placed in Coach Rodriguez.  Unfortunately, NCAA rules mandate that these players sit out a year if they choose to transfer elsewhere.  The transfer rule needs to be eliminated so that when coaches pursue other opportunities, the players they leave behind need not suffer further.  Give them the opportunity to either follow their coach or play elsewhere.  For Slaton and White, Rodriguez’s departure will presumably convince both to enter the NFL draft.  All in all, Rodriguez’s hiring will lead to a much different Wolverine football team than fans have been accustomed to watching for many decades.